As China’s auto exports surge, automakers are competing for available shipping capacity, and car carrier operators have regained the confidence to order newbuildings on a large scale.

In early 2025, orders for pure car and truck carriers (PCTCs) plummeted, and most analysts believed that the global PCTC fleet was expanding faster than underlying demand growth. On that basis, only five PCTCs were ordered in 2025. However, since the start of 2026, a surge in China’s auto exports has overturned this view. Data show that car carrier operators have already ordered 61 PCTCs this year. Analysts expect more PCTC orders to be placed in the second half, as automakers expect exports to remain strong.

Oliver Dunvold, an analyst at ABG Sundal Collier, said that the 65 newbuildings delivered in 2026 have already been absorbed, and additional deliveries for the remainder of the year will not be enough to cover China’s auto export volume.

He pointed out, “Although the rapid growth of the PCTC fleet and continued ordering will still bring a risk of oversupply in the future, newbuildings are being absorbed quickly after delivery, and the market will become increasingly tight in the short term.”

In fact, according to tracking reports by Shipping World Network, Höegh Autoliners returned to China Merchants Heavy Industry (Jiangsu) Co., Ltd. on August 25 to place an order for 6+4+4 Aurora-class car carriers. If all options are exercised, this will expand its Aurora-class newbuilding program to 26 vessels in total. SFL ordered four 7,000 CEU car carriers, expected to be delivered in 2029. Weeks after Sallaum Lines ordered 2+2 8,600 CEU dual-fuel PCTCs at Xiamen Shipbuilding Industry Co., Ltd., it placed an additional order for 1+1 8,600 CEU dual-fuel PCTCs at China Merchants Jinling Shipyard (Nanjing) Co., Ltd. In addition, Eastern Pacific Shipping (EPS) has ordered six LNG dual-fuel PCTCs, expected to be delivered in 2029.

Analysts at ABG Sundal Collier firmly believe that if China’s auto exports continue to grow at a rate close to 100%, the PCTC fleet will be far from sufficient by 2030.

Oliver Dunvold said, “We will see more orders. In our view, it makes more sense to order efficient newbuildings than to keep buying secondhand vessels at high prices.”

He said that an additional 75 PCTCs are needed to meet current Chinese auto export demand.

He pointed out, “Given the aging fleet, this means that if one believes in further growth in China or other regions, even more orders will be needed.”

In addition to newbuildings, car carrier operators are evaluating their growth strategies. Because available capacity is constrained, the expected operating life of vessels is increasing. In fact, hardly any car carriers have been scrapped since 2021; only one was scrapped in 2025, and another was scrapped in the first half of 2026.